Sunday, June 17, 2012

Tsipras or Samaras?

Markets were on cruise control this past week ahead of the all-important Greek Elections which take place tonight. The ultimate question is will there be a Grexit or not? What will happen to the Euro? We won’t know for sure once whoever gets elected but knowing of their ideology toward fiscal/monetary policy it seems that this is what COULD happen:

-Alexis Tsipras, probably the most feared man to the Greek citizens fight now, all for Greece leaving the EZ, left wing (liberal) party member and pro-Drachma. If he wins, we could see markets react sharply to the downside initially in electronic trading Sunday night into Monday.
-Antonis Samaras, more of a calm and collective to the citizens, wants to keep the country together, stay in the EZ, pro-bailout, right wing (conservative) party.

Who I want to win is Tsipras, what the Greek citizens want to see is change. Yes, they want to stay in the EZ and keep the currency, but sometimes departing and starting again might be the best thing. Tsipras wants to get job growth back and is all for getting growth back to the public sector to battle the 20%+ unemployment.

Who will probably win is Samaras, so many Greeks are all for sticking together and fighting through the battle, whether it means several rounds of bailouts, more funding, and higher taxes. They are biding their time until full on Armageddon will hit their country, no one will come to the rescue and they will default, it is inevitable.  

What choice would you make? The first round of exit polls begin at Noon eastern, it should be one for the history books. 

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