Sunday, January 2, 2022

2021 recap and back to blogging

 Hello all, it has definitely been a long time since I have posted here (over 7.5 years!) since then a lot has happened, both personally and in the markets. Right after that last post in 2014 I graduated and started a 7-year career with Citi in markets operations for, 1st their bond desk, then their equity derivative desk. I left the bank late this summer, and took with me a lot of knowledge with the inner workings on how non-exchange traded products are bought, sold, marked reported and the returns associated with them. It was a high stress job, the pandemic drove record volumes to our desk and long hours tying out risk for the desks to ensure no gaps in the control process. While it was a good run, I began to see the writing on the wall in regard to automation, a lot of front office positions were being cut, and the operations teams supporting them would be next. Leaving was tough as I made a lot of strong relationships there both on my team and the desks, but ultimately going back to school part time to learn how to read/write Python and SQL were in my best interests to stay in banking. I recently accepted an offer at Wells Fargo working on our Finance Accounting Control System team as a Project Manager/Business Analyst, now in the beginning stages of learning the ins and outs of dozens of source systems that supply us data to do our job. Nearly 4 million position records from over 2 dozen SORs representing $3T in absolute value exposure are loaded and stored in the data warehouse we support.

Another plus from moving to a new career is no more compliance restrictions around personal trading. I was pretty dormant on buying and selling for the past 7 years, mainly just maxing out my IRA/401k and adding to broad-based ETFs. I missed a bit of the action around the old days in college when I did some swing trading and medium-long term investments based on my research and models. I definitely have more time after work and on weekends now to start back up again, and with that I began to dip my toes back in, which I will recap month by month below for my closed trades and open trades, plus current holdings and returns.

Starting off with January, this position was a pure flyer from a friend’s recommendation. AgEagle Aerial Systems, Inc. (UAVS) is an agricultural drone manufacturer, and there was some speculation around whether or not they would get a deal with Amazon. I bought about $850 USD worth of the shares (700 shares) while still at Citi, having to abide by the 30-day hold period and approvals done. With the low share price, it got caught up in the pandemic-infused rally, which within the next 9 months made the shares rally up over $16. Seeing as there was no real progress of movement on the deal and their quarterly calls did not speak much of confidence to me, I did not want to get caught up in the volatility of this, and sold the entire position just over $10, giving me a very nice return. Looking back it was probably the best p/l on one position over my lifetime, with a small amount of risk.

DATE

SYMBOL

PRICE

P/L

Jan

 

 

 

4/29/2020

UAVS

1.2164

 

1/28/2021

UAVS

10.02463

6165.76

 

I was employed with Citi through July, which was then I began trading again. Started off the month taking profits on Chemours, based on fundamentals. I purchased the shares last July at an absolute steal, yielding 6.25% dividend, 4x TBV with string revenue growth and ~1B of cash on the balance sheet. I already own shares of Eastman Chemical, which at those valuations I found more attractive. With a more than 100% return over a year, I decided not to be too greedy and book profits that I had accrued, plus the $100 in dividends. Getting into the thick of the trading next, most of my strategy was around earnings, though there were a few (that I still hold and have not sold) not earnings but purely valuation, for long-term holds. I have stop losses set on the majority of my earnings driven trade around +-10%, tend not to stay in more than one day. A small gain in DOW and couple losses in LVS and F rounded out the month of July.

DATE

SYMBOL

PRICE

P/L

July

 

 

 

6/9/2020

CC

16.8899

 

7/29/2021

CC

33.16498

1752.44

7/21/2021

DOW

59.701

 

7/28/2021

DOW

62.0538

94.1

7/21/2021

LVS

49.4472

 

7/23/2021

LVS

46.105

-233.98

7/28/2021

F

13.9462

 

7/28/2021

F

13.6327

-125.48

 

August brought just one trade in Zillow, which breached the stop loss -10%, was waiting for a bounce, decided to move to 15% and take the loss. Looking back that was a good decision as just announced in November the big loss they took on their home buying portfolio. Shares are trading in the 60s now, and I see a lot of pressure ahead for them, especially if rates increase.

Aug

SYMBOL

PRICE

P/L

8/5/2021

Z

109.926

 

8/18/2021

Z

93.62

-244.6

 

September was also a one trade month, earnings driven for BBBY. This was an intraday move where the shares dropped hard on earnings, wanted to scalp a bit right at the open. Got lucky and took what I could before the close.

Sep

SYMBOL

PRICE

P/L

9/30/2021

BBBY

16.73

 

9/30/2021

BBBY

17.3007

114.1

 

October was the beginning of my trading that still continues today in my main vehicle SWN. I find it to be a rather non-volatile nat. gas name that has a built a defined range. First couple of times were earlier in the month right as the highs in NG were topping out, once I found a good footing on it, I became more in tune with correlations vs NG futures and was not hard to take a few pennies where I could. The next sale was BYND, terrible purchase. At the time I wanted to truly believe in this name and they could continue to get more exclusive deals with QSR chains through ’22, but from the price action in the name especially as it was tearing through 100 and seeing competitors come online with their own brands, plant based meat was beginning the saturation stages. I took a significant loss on this one, even as shares trade now ~20% off its all-time low, I think the bear case may be correct here. Margins are higher in QSR than frozen sales and now more competitors just spells trouble. My last trade was another not very smart one, trying to chase a halt on a news-driven event and got caught trying to sell before the halt happened again. Never playing anything like that again.

Oct

SYMBOL

PRICE

P/L

10/5/2021

SWN

5.535

 

10/5/2021

SWN

5.6745

69.68

10/13/2021

SWN

5.015

 

10/13/2021

SWN

4.9227

-184.89

8/5/2021

BYND

122.3316

 

10/22/2021

BYND

93.3982

-578.68

10/22/2021

PHUN

20

 

10/22/2021

PHUN

9.15

-434

 

November was my most active month, total of 17 trades. The losses piled on again as I was looking for a bounce on CHGG via earnings to open the month, quickly escaped that same day as it was not looking good intraday. Besides RKT and GPS the same week, the rest of the month was not too bad. CTXS is a different story, I was intending to stay in this name long-term as there was some activist and M&A swirling around, plus I liked their strong balance sheet. The air really started to come out of under 90 and I felt if there was any chance of a takeover, 100-105 area would probably be it and I did not want to wait around to find out. Bit painful, but moved on.

Nov

SYMBOL

PRICE

P/L

11/2/2021

CHGG

38.23

 

11/2/2021

CHGG

34.78

-345.03

11/4/2021

MELI

1549.98

 

11/5/2021

MELI

1681.525

263.07

11/4/2021

OXY

33.655

 

11/5/2021

OXY

33.4

-25.53

11/4/2021

RKT

17.975

 

11/5/2021

RKT

16.98

-149.28

11/4/2021

SHAK

78.37

 

11/5/2021

SHAK

88.27

296.99

11/9/2021

DNUT

13.02

 

11/10/2021

DNUT

13.735

142.97

11/9/2021

ELY

29.0945

 

11/10/2021

ELY

30.9

90.25

11/10/2021

APPH

5.61

 

11/11/2021

APPH

6.8302

122.02

11/10/2021

BW

7.365

 

11/11/2021

BW

8.251

132.87

11/10/2021

ULCC

17.0542

 

11/11/2021

ULCC

16.79

-26.44

11/10/2021

UTZ

16.1855

 

11/23/2021

UTZ

15.795

-39.07

11/10/2021

WISH

5.145

 

11/11/2021

WISH

5.72

114.97

11/2/2021

SWN

5.04956

 

11/11/2021

SWN

5.3117

261.99

8/18/2021

SNDL

0.7388

 

11/12/2021

SNDL

0.8031

288.83

11/23/2021

GPS

23.475

 

11/24/2021

GPS

18.275

-208

11/23/2021

NTNX

32.565

 

11/26/2021

NTNX

34.7862

155.46

7/28/2021

CTXS

114.9098

 

11/29/2021

CTXS

82.275

-970.82

 

December brought a few trades but nothing much as earnings season was winding down and year was coming to a close. I was feeling very good on FDX, bought a decent size position before the numbers, sold near the highs post release, trading right around where I sold it right now.

Dec

SYMBOL

PRICE

P/L

12/1/2021

CNTX

10.3922

 

12/1/2021

CNTX

9.97

-42.24

12/2/2021

SWN

4.225

 

12/2/2021

SWN

4.375

119.88

12/9/2021

CHWY

56.6228

 

12/10/2021

CHWY

50.44

-185.49

12/15/2021

SWN

4.755

 

12/15/2021

SWN

4.8141

70.84

12/15/2021

TBT

16.5351

 

12/15/2021

TBT

16.725

15.17

12/16/2021

FDX

243.2381

 

12/17/2021

FDX

258.0701

148.31

 

Below are my open positions. Planning to exit BITO, CPNG, DKNG within the next few weeks. Biggest surprise moves this year were BJ and BK. Majority of these are long-term holds.

Ticker

Purchase

Return

Annualized

Cash

 

 

 

AMPH

7/26/2016

39.34%

6.29%

AOUT

12/9/2021

-6.28%

-6.28%

BITO

10/19/2021

-30.11%

-30.11%

BJ

8/17/2020

56.73%

38.55%

BK

2/17/2021

35.37%

35.37%

CBOE

7/26/2016

89.40%

12.46%

CLX

11/26/2021

1.56%

1.56%

CPNG

8/11/2021

-21.12%

-21.12%

DFS

8/27/2020

118.94%

78.64%

DKNG

8/5/2021

-45.26%

-45.26%

DOUG

12/30/2021

27.41%

27.41%

EFV

1/2/2018

-9.76%

-2.53%

EMN

8/2/2017

44.78%

8.73%

EPC

11/10/2021

20.04%

20.04%

FNMA

11/25/2008

-4.86%

-0.37%

GE

11/13/2018

37.40%

10.65%

GOOG

11/25/2008

1710.65%

24.72%

GOOGL

11/25/2008

1710.65%

24.72%

HDV

1/4/2021

14.79%

14.79%

IBM

1/8/2020

-0.43%

-0.22%

IJR

1/9/2019

55.6%

15.96%

IVR

8/3/2011

-86.0%

-17.2%

IWM

1/28/2016

117.8%

14.0%

KBE

12/18/2014

62.2%

7.11%

KD

11/3/2021

-42.5%

-42.5%

KHC

2/25/2019

3.56%

1.23%

MSFT

6/25/2019

151.94%

44.17%

OI

8/3/2021

-21.63%

-21.63%

PG

5/3/2015

101.95%

11.11%

QSR

2/6/2020

-3.11%

-1.64%

QSR

3/25/2020

34.31%

18.08%

SOFI

8/4/2021

-4.30%

-4.30%

T

1/27/2014

-27.05%

-3.90%

TAST

8/20/2021

-32.57%

-32.57%

VEU

1/9/2017

34.8%

6.18%

VGR

11/3/2016

20.53%

3.68%

VTI

5/3/2015

119.09%

12.47%

VTRS

12/9/2021

6.24%

6.24%

Y

11/4/2021

2.38%

2.38%

 

Portfolio overview

Ticker

Percentage Holdings

Cash

29.90%

HDV

15.09%

MSFT

11.06%

DFS

3.03%

IWM

2.49%

QSR

2.43%

IBM

2.37%

BK

2.23%

IJR

2.20%

PG

2.10%

VTI

1.93%

GOOGL

1.86%

GOOG

1.85%

CBOE

1.80%

CLX

1.68%

BJ

1.61%

VEU

1.57%

KBE

1.22%

EMN

1.16%

KHC

1.15%

EFV

1.13%

T

1.12%

SOFI

1.01%

GE

0.94%

VTRS

0.87%

Y

0.86%

VGR

0.85%

TAST

0.76%

AMPH

0.75%

AOUT

0.64%

EPC

0.44%

DOUG

0.42%

OI

0.39%

CPNG

0.38%

DKNG

0.35%

BITO

0.28%

KD

0.06%

IVR

0.04%

FNMA

0.03%