Sunday, February 26, 2012

concise look at $CL_F $ES_F long term

Welcome back everyone; it has been a couple of weeks so let’s begin with a recap:

-Markets have continued the slow grind up on rumors and proposed deals to keep Greece afloat one more day. This is beginning to seem like a new norm.
-Friday was a new almost 4 year closing high for the S&P tracking back to before 2008 crisis
-Last post indicated 1,350 S&P resistance, tested 2x after that with a 3rd breach and close above. S&P has not broken below 1,350 since and looks to be new short term support.
-New resistance level 1,373 as shown below, lining up with levels last seen in June ‘08.

The pic above shows my 1,400 long-term resistance level. Notice a pattern taking place from ’08 where we see 200pt run up off of a 5-10% correction. I have 1,400 pinned seeing that it would make a near 200pt up move since we last saw a rather large down move. 1,400 could see some selling pressure and could push us back down to 1,330-50 area pretty quick.

Oil has become a hot topic as of recent. This past week we saw some huge up moves in WTI nearing last springs highs of 110. I am long crude, but a straight up move like this so quick believes me into thinking we could see a bit of profit taking back down to possibly below 105. Get ready to be paying $4 or more at the pump soon. Hybrid cars?  Toyota? Possibly.

Above CL_F Weekly chart rather large bids coming in this past week, pattern looks to continue if we can breach 110 and hold above. Notice 114 is last year’s high and 80 is support.

Above CL_F Monthly looking back about 10 years, notice pattern in 2005-06 when we saw pattern of a top, profit taking then, continued up again, seems like the pattern we are seeing this past year.

Looking at my portfolio so far, relatively no change since my last post, Earnings for DryShips came out and reported a loss, though their oil drilling division showed signs of strength. The stock initially sold off down to the 3.09 level, a bit overdone I believe on my part. Just to save some of my profits, I put a 3.00 stop in, thankfully it did not kick in and the shares shot up to 3.80 intraday. Still holding long-term. Still holding RadioShak after the earnings report, shares are currently below the 7.30 level where I bought them, will look to sell out of all my position at 1st breach of 7.00.

Having off from school this week for mid-term break, I will be at the charts and on twitter @peter_eller10 pretty much all day, many names I am looking at including $FDP and $DAR (big food bull, see post on $BG last year). Catch you all next week.

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