Sunday, October 30, 2011

Will unemployment week stall our recovery?

Another week for the books indeed. Last week we saw a big up move Thursday on more kick the can news for Greece. Take this as bullish for now, bearish later, eventually we will come to that day where we can no longer be doing this anymore, enjoy it while it lasts. We saw the ES jump from 1,220 to 1,290 in 2 days, stops looked to be in place around 1,290 as there was a small amount of selling pressure towards the last 15 min Thursday. We are positioned to go either way this week, so a couple levels to watch:

Downside: Support and 200 DMA are both around 1,266, 1,256 is UNCH for 2011

Upside: Resistance: 1,294 (Got here Thursday then pulled back off the highs) then 1,306

I see us possibly creep higher to 1,300, then pull back a bit, have a selloff possible below out 1st support on the jobs report Friday.

Last week I highlighted Manitowoc, Bunge and Dominion, appeared to be right on all 3 of those.

We saw a big push to the upside in $MTW on a stellar report

Big move above the $10 level in $MTW definitely bullish signals

Also saw Bunge with an ok report and a nice move up above $60, still in my opinion very cheap on valuation.

Above $BG

Downward move after earnings from Dominion Resources after the report

Trading range appears to be compressing, still long imo

Earnings this week I will be focused on my own holdings since they will all be reporting; Frontier Communications, Invesco Mortgage Capital, and Eastman Kodak. Frontier $FTR has recently broken down once it crossed $7.00 which was huge support. I have been holding onto this name for 2+ years now and the return has been basically flat when the large dividend is included. After the report comes out this Thursday, I will make a decision to dump it or not. EPS looks to come in around .06 There is still a buy rating on the name, though the P/E is rater high at 39.

Above FTR, looking for a possible breakout to the upside after it has been beaten down pretty bad.

Invesco Mortgage Capital has also been hit after the US government shutdown fears, then the broad market decline and has not recovered much of its losses. In my opinion, this is a very safe company as long as there is no talk or action of US default/shutdown. $IVR has been hanging between $14.00-$14.4 for a month, finally broke out of that range last week up to $16.

Above $IVR with a nice move up last week, looking for another good report here and a possible move toward $17

Eastman Kodak I bought at $1.50 and holding a small position spec. only. There is a lot going on right now with patents and I figured I’d put a couple hundred dollars in, might go up, might not, but I think that they are working very hard to try and recoup losses and cut costs. They are expected to post a .62 cent loss EPS.

$EK is given a slight bias sell rating.

Have a good week everyone.

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