Hello all, it has definitely been a long time since I have posted here (over 7.5 years!) since then a lot has happened, both personally and in the markets. Right after that last post in 2014 I graduated and started a 7-year career with Citi in markets operations for, 1st their bond desk, then their equity derivative desk. I left the bank late this summer, and took with me a lot of knowledge with the inner workings on how non-exchange traded products are bought, sold, marked reported and the returns associated with them. It was a high stress job, the pandemic drove record volumes to our desk and long hours tying out risk for the desks to ensure no gaps in the control process. While it was a good run, I began to see the writing on the wall in regard to automation, a lot of front office positions were being cut, and the operations teams supporting them would be next. Leaving was tough as I made a lot of strong relationships there both on my team and the desks, but ultimately going back to school part time to learn how to read/write Python and SQL were in my best interests to stay in banking. I recently accepted an offer at Wells Fargo working on our Finance Accounting Control System team as a Project Manager/Business Analyst, now in the beginning stages of learning the ins and outs of dozens of source systems that supply us data to do our job. Nearly 4 million position records from over 2 dozen SORs representing $3T in absolute value exposure are loaded and stored in the data warehouse we support.
Another plus from moving to a new career is no more
compliance restrictions around personal trading. I was pretty dormant on buying
and selling for the past 7 years, mainly just maxing out my IRA/401k and adding
to broad-based ETFs. I missed a bit of the action around the old days in
college when I did some swing trading and medium-long term investments based on
my research and models. I definitely have more time after work and on weekends
now to start back up again, and with that I began to dip my toes back in, which
I will recap month by month below for my closed trades and open trades, plus
current holdings and returns.
Starting off with January, this position was a pure flyer
from a friend’s recommendation. AgEagle Aerial Systems, Inc. (UAVS) is an
agricultural drone manufacturer, and there was some speculation around whether
or not they would get a deal with Amazon. I bought about $850 USD worth of the
shares (700 shares) while still at Citi, having to abide by the 30-day hold
period and approvals done. With the low share price, it got caught up in the
pandemic-infused rally, which within the next 9 months made the shares rally up
over $16. Seeing as there was no real progress of movement on the deal and
their quarterly calls did not speak much of confidence to me, I did not want to
get caught up in the volatility of this, and sold the entire position just over
$10, giving me a very nice return. Looking back it was probably the best p/l on
one position over my lifetime, with a small amount of risk.
|
DATE |
SYMBOL |
PRICE |
P/L |
|
Jan |
|
|
|
|
4/29/2020 |
UAVS |
1.2164 |
|
|
1/28/2021 |
UAVS |
10.02463 |
6165.76 |
I was employed with Citi through July, which was then I
began trading again. Started off the month taking profits on Chemours, based on
fundamentals. I purchased the shares last July at an absolute steal, yielding
6.25% dividend, 4x TBV with string revenue growth and ~1B of cash on the
balance sheet. I already own shares of Eastman Chemical, which at those
valuations I found more attractive. With a more than 100% return over a year, I
decided not to be too greedy and book profits that I had accrued, plus the $100
in dividends. Getting into the thick of the trading next, most of my strategy
was around earnings, though there were a few (that I still hold and have not
sold) not earnings but purely valuation, for long-term holds. I have stop
losses set on the majority of my earnings driven trade around +-10%, tend not
to stay in more than one day. A small gain in DOW and couple losses in LVS and
F rounded out the month of July.
|
DATE |
SYMBOL |
PRICE |
P/L |
|
July |
|
|
|
|
6/9/2020 |
CC |
16.8899 |
|
|
7/29/2021 |
CC |
33.16498 |
1752.44 |
|
7/21/2021 |
DOW |
59.701 |
|
|
7/28/2021 |
DOW |
62.0538 |
94.1 |
|
7/21/2021 |
LVS |
49.4472 |
|
|
7/23/2021 |
LVS |
46.105 |
-233.98 |
|
7/28/2021 |
F |
13.9462 |
|
|
7/28/2021 |
F |
13.6327 |
-125.48 |
August brought just one trade in Zillow, which breached the
stop loss -10%, was waiting for a bounce, decided to move to 15% and take the
loss. Looking back that was a good decision as just announced in November the
big loss they took on their home buying portfolio. Shares are trading in the
60s now, and I see a lot of pressure ahead for them, especially if rates
increase.
|
Aug |
SYMBOL |
PRICE |
P/L |
|
8/5/2021 |
Z |
109.926 |
|
|
8/18/2021 |
Z |
93.62 |
-244.6 |
September was also a one trade month, earnings driven for
BBBY. This was an intraday move where the shares dropped hard on earnings,
wanted to scalp a bit right at the open. Got lucky and took what I could before
the close.
|
Sep |
SYMBOL |
PRICE |
P/L |
|
9/30/2021 |
BBBY |
16.73 |
|
|
9/30/2021 |
BBBY |
17.3007 |
114.1 |
October was the beginning of my trading that still continues
today in my main vehicle SWN. I find it to be a rather non-volatile nat. gas
name that has a built a defined range. First couple of times were earlier in
the month right as the highs in NG were topping out, once I found a good
footing on it, I became more in tune with correlations vs NG futures and was
not hard to take a few pennies where I could. The next sale was BYND, terrible
purchase. At the time I wanted to truly believe in this name and they could
continue to get more exclusive deals with QSR chains through ’22, but from the
price action in the name especially as it was tearing through 100 and seeing
competitors come online with their own brands, plant based meat was beginning
the saturation stages. I took a significant loss on this one, even as shares
trade now ~20% off its all-time low, I think the bear case may be correct here.
Margins are higher in QSR than frozen sales and now more competitors just
spells trouble. My last trade was another not very smart one, trying to chase a
halt on a news-driven event and got caught trying to sell before the halt
happened again. Never playing anything like that again.
|
Oct |
SYMBOL |
PRICE |
P/L |
|
10/5/2021 |
SWN |
5.535 |
|
|
10/5/2021 |
SWN |
5.6745 |
69.68 |
|
10/13/2021 |
SWN |
5.015 |
|
|
10/13/2021 |
SWN |
4.9227 |
-184.89 |
|
8/5/2021 |
BYND |
122.3316 |
|
|
10/22/2021 |
BYND |
93.3982 |
-578.68 |
|
10/22/2021 |
PHUN |
20 |
|
|
10/22/2021 |
PHUN |
9.15 |
-434 |
November was my most active month, total of 17 trades. The
losses piled on again as I was looking for a bounce on CHGG via earnings to
open the month, quickly escaped that same day as it was not looking good
intraday. Besides RKT and GPS the same week, the rest of the month was not too
bad. CTXS is a different story, I was intending to stay in this name long-term
as there was some activist and M&A swirling around, plus I liked their
strong balance sheet. The air really started to come out of under 90 and I felt
if there was any chance of a takeover, 100-105 area would probably be it and I did
not want to wait around to find out. Bit painful, but moved on.
|
Nov |
SYMBOL |
PRICE |
P/L |
|
11/2/2021 |
CHGG |
38.23 |
|
|
11/2/2021 |
CHGG |
34.78 |
-345.03 |
|
11/4/2021 |
MELI |
1549.98 |
|
|
11/5/2021 |
MELI |
1681.525 |
263.07 |
|
11/4/2021 |
OXY |
33.655 |
|
|
11/5/2021 |
OXY |
33.4 |
-25.53 |
|
11/4/2021 |
RKT |
17.975 |
|
|
11/5/2021 |
RKT |
16.98 |
-149.28 |
|
11/4/2021 |
SHAK |
78.37 |
|
|
11/5/2021 |
SHAK |
88.27 |
296.99 |
|
11/9/2021 |
DNUT |
13.02 |
|
|
11/10/2021 |
DNUT |
13.735 |
142.97 |
|
11/9/2021 |
ELY |
29.0945 |
|
|
11/10/2021 |
ELY |
30.9 |
90.25 |
|
11/10/2021 |
APPH |
5.61 |
|
|
11/11/2021 |
APPH |
6.8302 |
122.02 |
|
11/10/2021 |
BW |
7.365 |
|
|
11/11/2021 |
BW |
8.251 |
132.87 |
|
11/10/2021 |
ULCC |
17.0542 |
|
|
11/11/2021 |
ULCC |
16.79 |
-26.44 |
|
11/10/2021 |
UTZ |
16.1855 |
|
|
11/23/2021 |
UTZ |
15.795 |
-39.07 |
|
11/10/2021 |
WISH |
5.145 |
|
|
11/11/2021 |
WISH |
5.72 |
114.97 |
|
11/2/2021 |
SWN |
5.04956 |
|
|
11/11/2021 |
SWN |
5.3117 |
261.99 |
|
8/18/2021 |
SNDL |
0.7388 |
|
|
11/12/2021 |
SNDL |
0.8031 |
288.83 |
|
11/23/2021 |
GPS |
23.475 |
|
|
11/24/2021 |
GPS |
18.275 |
-208 |
|
11/23/2021 |
NTNX |
32.565 |
|
|
11/26/2021 |
NTNX |
34.7862 |
155.46 |
|
7/28/2021 |
CTXS |
114.9098 |
|
|
11/29/2021 |
CTXS |
82.275 |
-970.82 |
December brought a few trades but nothing much as earnings
season was winding down and year was coming to a close. I was feeling very good
on FDX, bought a decent size position before the numbers, sold near the highs
post release, trading right around where I sold it right now.
|
Dec |
SYMBOL |
PRICE |
P/L |
|
12/1/2021 |
CNTX |
10.3922 |
|
|
12/1/2021 |
CNTX |
9.97 |
-42.24 |
|
12/2/2021 |
SWN |
4.225 |
|
|
12/2/2021 |
SWN |
4.375 |
119.88 |
|
12/9/2021 |
CHWY |
56.6228 |
|
|
12/10/2021 |
CHWY |
50.44 |
-185.49 |
|
12/15/2021 |
SWN |
4.755 |
|
|
12/15/2021 |
SWN |
4.8141 |
70.84 |
|
12/15/2021 |
TBT |
16.5351 |
|
|
12/15/2021 |
TBT |
16.725 |
15.17 |
|
12/16/2021 |
FDX |
243.2381 |
|
|
12/17/2021 |
FDX |
258.0701 |
148.31 |
Below are my open positions. Planning to exit BITO, CPNG,
DKNG within the next few weeks. Biggest surprise moves this year were BJ and
BK. Majority of these are long-term holds.
|
Ticker |
Purchase |
Return |
Annualized |
|
Cash |
|
|
|
|
AMPH |
7/26/2016 |
39.34% |
6.29% |
|
AOUT |
12/9/2021 |
-6.28% |
-6.28% |
|
BITO |
10/19/2021 |
-30.11% |
-30.11% |
|
BJ |
8/17/2020 |
56.73% |
38.55% |
|
BK |
2/17/2021 |
35.37% |
35.37% |
|
CBOE |
7/26/2016 |
89.40% |
12.46% |
|
CLX |
11/26/2021 |
1.56% |
1.56% |
|
CPNG |
8/11/2021 |
-21.12% |
-21.12% |
|
DFS |
8/27/2020 |
118.94% |
78.64% |
|
DKNG |
8/5/2021 |
-45.26% |
-45.26% |
|
DOUG |
12/30/2021 |
27.41% |
27.41% |
|
EFV |
1/2/2018 |
-9.76% |
-2.53% |
|
EMN |
8/2/2017 |
44.78% |
8.73% |
|
EPC |
11/10/2021 |
20.04% |
20.04% |
|
FNMA |
11/25/2008 |
-4.86% |
-0.37% |
|
GE |
11/13/2018 |
37.40% |
10.65% |
|
GOOG |
11/25/2008 |
1710.65% |
24.72% |
|
GOOGL |
11/25/2008 |
1710.65% |
24.72% |
|
HDV |
1/4/2021 |
14.79% |
14.79% |
|
IBM |
1/8/2020 |
-0.43% |
-0.22% |
|
IJR |
1/9/2019 |
55.6% |
15.96% |
|
IVR |
8/3/2011 |
-86.0% |
-17.2% |
|
IWM |
1/28/2016 |
117.8% |
14.0% |
|
KBE |
12/18/2014 |
62.2% |
7.11% |
|
KD |
11/3/2021 |
-42.5% |
-42.5% |
|
KHC |
2/25/2019 |
3.56% |
1.23% |
|
MSFT |
6/25/2019 |
151.94% |
44.17% |
|
OI |
8/3/2021 |
-21.63% |
-21.63% |
|
PG |
5/3/2015 |
101.95% |
11.11% |
|
QSR |
2/6/2020 |
-3.11% |
-1.64% |
|
QSR |
3/25/2020 |
34.31% |
18.08% |
|
SOFI |
8/4/2021 |
-4.30% |
-4.30% |
|
T |
1/27/2014 |
-27.05% |
-3.90% |
|
TAST |
8/20/2021 |
-32.57% |
-32.57% |
|
VEU |
1/9/2017 |
34.8% |
6.18% |
|
VGR |
11/3/2016 |
20.53% |
3.68% |
|
VTI |
5/3/2015 |
119.09% |
12.47% |
|
VTRS |
12/9/2021 |
6.24% |
6.24% |
|
Y |
11/4/2021 |
2.38% |
2.38% |
Portfolio
overview
|
Ticker |
Percentage Holdings |
|
Cash |
29.90% |
|
HDV |
15.09% |
|
MSFT |
11.06% |
|
DFS |
3.03% |
|
IWM |
2.49% |
|
QSR |
2.43% |
|
IBM |
2.37% |
|
BK |
2.23% |
|
IJR |
2.20% |
|
PG |
2.10% |
|
VTI |
1.93% |
|
GOOGL |
1.86% |
|
GOOG |
1.85% |
|
CBOE |
1.80% |
|
CLX |
1.68% |
|
BJ |
1.61% |
|
VEU |
1.57% |
|
KBE |
1.22% |
|
EMN |
1.16% |
|
KHC |
1.15% |
|
EFV |
1.13% |
|
T |
1.12% |
|
SOFI |
1.01% |
|
GE |
0.94% |
|
VTRS |
0.87% |
|
Y |
0.86% |
|
VGR |
0.85% |
|
TAST |
0.76% |
|
AMPH |
0.75% |
|
AOUT |
0.64% |
|
EPC |
0.44% |
|
DOUG |
0.42% |
|
OI |
0.39% |
|
CPNG |
0.38% |
|
DKNG |
0.35% |
|
BITO |
0.28% |
|
KD |
0.06% |
|
IVR |
0.04% |
|
FNMA |
0.03% |
